Blog

by Steve Risner

Note: All numbers reflected here are as of March 30, 2020. They will certainly be different tomorrow and next week, but the point is the same. Thank you for reading.

Here’s the deal: there are 2600 dead in the US from COVID-19. That seems like a lot, but when we understand how the numbers work in the US, it’s actually not. That’s 0.0008% of the population of the country. In Ohio, the number of dead works out to 0.0002% of the population. There have been 162,000 who have died in 2020 from heart disease. There have been nearly 35,000 deaths from stroke this year so far. The flu season, being labelled “normal to low,” has claimed 22,000 Americans. The H1N1 (swine flu) of 2009 claimed 1000 Americans before the president made any declarations, and those were to stay calm, don’t panic, and stay open if you’re a business or school. That pandemic rattled the world, killing nearly half a million worldwide and 12,000 to 18,000 (depending on who you talk to) in the States. Almost 300,000 deaths have been recorded (about 3200 per day) due to motor vehicle accidents this year so far in the US. In Ohio, this works out to be about 250 deaths from crashes so far this year (based on averages and stats). Something around 325,000 have died worldwide from TB this year. It's estimated that there have been 10,000,000 deaths worldwide and just short of 200,000 in the US since January 1 due to abortion. Again, if statistical averages hold true, we have had nearly 40,000 die in 2020 from communicable diseases. Almost 7% of those are from COVID-19. Nearly 60% of those are from influenza. That is 20x the deaths from the flu vs coronavirus. Now, there have been 14 million deaths this year worldwide. This means that, if there are currently 27,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus so far, that is less than 0.2% of all deaths.

Another thing to consider is the capacity of our health care system. We're told it's out of control and hospitals are being filled. I even heard a talking head on the news use the phrase, "People are dying in the streets." Is any of this true at the moment? Not at all. In the US, there are about 190,000 cases of coronavirus. Worldwide, about 5% require a hospital. This means about 9400 will require a hospital in this country over the last 3 months. This is fewer than 2 per facility. In Ohio, there are 2000 cases and just shy of 200 hospitals. At the 5% rate, that is 100 hospitalizations or 1 per every 2 hospitals. California is considered to be fairly bad; they have 8600 cases. About 430 should require a hospital over the 3 months thus far. There are over 300 hospitals there, putting fewer than 2 per facility in need. New York is considered the worst in the country as of right now; they are dealing with 75,000 cases or roughly 40% of the nation's cases. They may have trouble. That's 3700 critical cases or abut 17 per hospital in the state. But reports at those hospitals suggest many have 0 cases or only a couple. I realize more highly populated places will have a heavier case load, but the numbers aren't adding up to what we're being threatened with. And when the media puts up footage of hospitals in Italy but refer to the hospitals in New York City, I'm not sure why we should accept anything they're telling us.

Obviously, the number of cases in the US is going to go up very quickly. We knew this weeks ago because of testing. The previous president depleted our stores for dealing with this sort of thing 10 years ago and never put anything back into the pot. This has led to issues now, while the current administration is being blamed. But that’s not the real problem.

It’s certainly true that this novel coronavirus is a threat to some. When I say “some,” I mean a very small portion of the population. The mortality rate of REPORTED cases is 4.5% worldwide. Here in the States, it’s 1.4% of REPORTED cases. The mortality rate of the flu is believed to be around 0.1%. That seems like the flu is much milder than COVID-19, but that’s not comparing apples to apples. Influenza often kills up to 10% of known cases. The 0.1% comes from presumed cases. That’s a big difference. It’s very likely, when working this into COVID-19, we probably have 1/10th or even 1/100th of the total number of cases on record. It’s commonly known that this virus has been in the States since December (some reports say November). So, we have a few months of cases with no testing whatsoever, and most of these cases are mild to no symptoms. How many times of you heard of the flu having no symptoms or very mild symptoms? It doesn’t happen. The flu is terrible nearly every single time a person gets it. Not so with COVID-19. That’s because, for the vast majority of cases, it’s hardly even an inconvenience.

Yes, this is serious for some. No, it’s not serious for most. Yes, we should do what we can to make sure everyone is safe. No, we don’t need to destroy the economy and shut down the world, shaming those who still need and want to work.

People keep saying that this will inundate our hospitals. I’ve seen numerous articles on it, warning of predicted full beds and no equipment to help. But while this might be true in New York City, it’s hardly come to a realization in the vast majority of places in the US. Yes, hospitals are busier than normal (since there have been 22,000 deaths from the flu) but when the media saturates the airwaves with terrifying news coverage, insinuating that all of the inhabitants of earth will die from this plague (when we can quite easily see that’s nowhere near the case) anytime someone has a sniffle, they’ll run to the ER because they’ve “got the corona!”

In Ohio, fewer than 5% of tests come back positive. There have been issues with tests reading false positives and negatives, and they’re supposedly getting better at this. But still… less than 5%. We also know that the projections from the top people in the fields involved have revised their numbers down dramatically over the last few weeks (before “stay at home” laws were implemented). You don’t see this in the media coverage because it doesn’t fit the apocalypse narrative at all.

It’s fear mongering. The numbers are inflated. This is obvious and to deny it is to ask no one to take you seriously. If there’s a good story or some positive news concerning this, you won’t see it covered by the media. It doesn’t fit the narrative. And there are lots of good things: experts predicting the worst is over, experts saying the mortality rate is much lower than we thought, experts telling us how many have recovered, and reports of how mild the symptoms are for the vast majority. Only 12% of those claimed to have died from this virus in Italy actually died from the virus. The largest portion died WITH it, not from it. As an aside, it would be very interesting to know what actually causes it to be worse in some and symptom free in another. It’s not age or health level, it seems, as some young people have been bad and some older have been mild.

It’s way too easy in these situations to ignore the facts and run with emotion. That’s what the media thrives on. You see pictures or hear stories of people dying and how awful it is, and your emotions are pricked. But reality needs to be in view here. Emotional arguments and positions are fine if they’re based on reality or at least peppered with it. Saying this virus is so terrible doesn’t work. Compared to things that happen all the time—flu, heart disease, stroke, car accidents, whatever—it’s a drop in a very large bucket. Yes, we need to do what we can to stop it, but shutting down the world makes no sense.

Experts are suggesting the data doesn’t support shutting everything down. It seems like this is impacted in a bigger way with good hygiene and not spreading your respiratory droplets on people or surfaces. Isolation may, in fact, make the situation worse by prolonging the epidemic and reducing herd immunity, so we have a spike in the near future which will return again and again. This doesn’t sound good to me. Keeping the number of hospitalized below the capacity of the hospitals is good. It seems like that is easily the case in nearly but not quite all hospitals. Keeping it much lower is bad because, again, it reduces herd immunity and prolongs the problem. We’ll deal with it for several months or even years rather than getting it finished in a few.

I hope this at least helps you explore what some of us believe about the situation. You can poo-poo my opinion all you want, but you can’t deny the facts if you want to be taken seriously.

My hope in all of this is that the Church, and especially myself and my family, can be a light in a dark place. My hope is that we rise up to the occasion to bless others and care for their needs. We’ve been looking for those who need a hand—whatever that may mean—and filling the void when we can. The Church needs to be out there in the trenches, meeting physical needs to so we can earn the right to tell people about their spiritual needs. Rather than fill people with dread and fear, my hope is to be joyous and encouraging. I want to spread hope rather than worry. I guess I want to be the opposite of the liberal media. I’ll be a light in a dark place. B.J. Palmer once said, “Better to light one candle than to curse the darkness.” I’m lighting a candle.

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